There have been reports about Apple developing a car since 2014. Mac Rumors reported that Apple’s interest in a car dates back to before the iPhone, even suggesting that Steve Jobs considered developing a car, but decided instead to work on producing the iPhone. Reuters now believes Apple is targeting 2024 to begin production of a car. Ming-Chi Ku, well-known Apple analyst at TF International Securities, thinks Apple could introduce a car between 2025 and 2028. And Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman believes the company is targeting an Apple Car launch in 2025.
Autonomous systems for driverless vehicles is the mother of all AI projects. - Tim Cook
Apple CEO Tim Cook actually has spoken in the past about the company’s efforts at developing autonomous driving technology. In 2017, Cook hinted that Apple was working on autonomous systems for driverless vehicles, calling the effort “the mother of all AI projects.” He also described autonomous technology as “core technology” for Apple. In 2019, Apple released a White Paper which detailed a point of view on self-driving. The company wrote, “We believe that automated driving systems have the promise to greatly enhance the human experience in three key areas: improving road safety, increasing mobility, and realizing broader societal benefits.” Additionally, the White Paper continued with, “We are investing heavily in the study of machine learning and automation, and we are excited about the potential of automated systems in many areas, including transportation.”
Apple earned nearly $100 billion on revenue of $365 billion in its 2022 fiscal year. Why might a company with this level of profit and revenue be interested in entering the automotive business? The answer to this question is primarily why I acquired Apple stock in 2015, and continue to own shares in the company today.
Last year, Morgan Stanley’s Katie Huberty valued the future global automotive and autonomous mobility market at $10 trillion. By comparison, the total addressable market of the smartphone space is only $500 billion. While Apple captures one-third of the smart phone market and seventy percent of the profits, a $10 trillion autonomous EV category is too large even for Apple to ignore. The history of Apple is that when it attacks a product or service segment, the company tends to be among the winners. Winning for Apple is defined as capturing the lions-share of profits from any segment in which it chooses to compete. Not only could winning in the autonomous EV space be lucrative for Apple, but also it might be very lucrative for Apple investors.
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