A recent Washington Post opinion piece by John Browne highlights five myths about autonomous vehicles Mr. Browne attempts to explain. John Browne is the former chief executive of BP and the executive chairman of L1 Energy. He believes that autonomous vehicles are the future and this technology will bring an era of convenience, improved productivity, and better safety. However, he also believes there are five autonomous vehicle myths that help fuel the hype.
Myth 1: Autonomous cars will mean fewer private cars
Myth 2: Autonomous cars will fix congestion
Myth 3: AVs will reduce environmental impacts
Myth 4: AVs will kill the auto insurance industry
Myth 5: AVs are safer that human drivers today
In the article, some of Browne’s opinions seem well reasoned. Others seem more like opinions based on instincts rather than analyses. For example, his belief that autonomous cars will not supplant private cars ignores the cost of ownership of private cars versus a future of AV mobility services. In Autonomy, Larry Burns and Christopher Shulgan attempt to compare the cost of vehicle ownership versus AV taxi service costs. Their estimated cost of owning and operating a car is $1.50 per mile. The cost of an autonomous, electric vehicle service is calculated to be $0.20 per mile. If correct, it would seem that economics will also play a part in people deciding not to purchase or lease a vehicle in favor of utilizing robo-taxi services.